2010 10 11   
   3-5  1-2  1/2   
   70%20%NBV   021-68761622 
   +  hhm@citics.com 
     S1010207090112 
    3-5   15%-20% 
                                                        021-68761846 
     yshui@citics.com 
                                               2008   
   35%  
                                    1                     
   IC/FIC                                                 
                                  3                      
    40%-60%                                              
                                7                        
                              6                          
                                                        12010 9  
                                                         ........ 2010-09-30 
                                                 3-5  
                 EV        NBV      NBV          
               09  10E 11E  09  10E 11E 10E 11E  2010  
          52.89  21.1  23.2 26.7  1.61  2.02 2.60 14.7 10.1  71.7 
          21.80  11.6  13  14.9  0.59  0.70 0.85 12.6 8.1  30.9 
          21.53  10.1  11.6 13.2  0.63  0.68 0.77 14.6 10.8  27.7 
                      2010 9 30   
...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 
.............................................................................................................................................................. 1 
.............................................................................................................................................................. 1 
      .................................................................................................................. 2 
                  ...................................................................................................... 2 
      70%NBV 20%.................................................................................................... 3 
                  ...................................................................................................... 3 
          .............................................................................................................. 5 
  ...................................................................................................................... 5 
                          .............................................................................................. 6 
      ——.............................................................................................. 9 
               ........................................................................................................ 12 
3-5 15%-20%................................................................................... 13 
      50% ......................................................................... 13 
                               ...............

保险行业：银保价值增长，突破在望.pdf