OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITY Doing Business in Iraq AGENDA AGENDA OVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY AGENDA COMPARISON OF IRAQ WITH SAUDI ARABIA AGENDA THANK YOU  Source:	 Press clippings How do the changes in Iraq affect the economic governance structures in the region and will other countries in the region be ‘forced’ to open up their economies to stay competitive?  What is the economic and political impact of a potential drop in oil prices caused by an increased in Iraq’s production and what will be the future of OPEC?  How can regional companies benefit from expected large investment requirements to rebuild Iraq and how will position themselves to capture the opportunity (e.g., consolidation, alliances) ?  KEY ISSUES FOR THE REGION FOLLOWING THE REBUILDING OF IRAQ  ……which will have impact on other economies of the region FOR DISCUSSION  * Unit of measure 	*	Footnote Source:	Sources Date This report is solely for the use of client personnel.  No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion. Amman, 5th June 2003 Achmed Al-Shahrabani McKinsey & Company, Inc. Overview Iraq   Economic scenarios for Iraq   Required investments  Overview Iraq   Economic scenarios for Iraq   Required investments  Total area: 437,000 m2  Limited arable land Arable land: 11% Permanent crops: 1% Desert: 88%  Largest governates Baghdad (8.0m) Nineveh (2.1m) Basra (2.0m)  Varying climate (Baghdad) Summer temp: 35-50o Winter temp: 5-15o Rainfall: 155mm/year 	 Source:		Country Watch, CIA world fact book Car transport 39,000 km paved roads 765,000 privately registered passenger cars 266,000 privately registered trucks Air Major airports in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul Three major railway routes Baghdad–Kirkuk–Irbil Baghdad–Mosul–Yurubiyah Baghdad–Maagal–Umm Qasr Telecom 3% penetration, no mobile network Utilities  250 water treatment facilities Power generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MW Geography and climate Infrastructure The majority of Iraq is characterized by desert 	  Source:		World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq 50% of population younger than 16 years 28% of population is labor force Approximately 51% males 75% of population resides in urban areas There is an estimated 1m–2m Iraqi’s living in exile Fertility rate 4.5–5 children per women Adult literacy at 54% 1.5-2.5 million foreign workers Key facts 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 CAGR 3% DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002 Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millions Million Source:		CIA world fact book 100% = 24.2m Others Arabs- Shia Muslims Kurds – Sunni Muslims 4 62 12 Arabs – Sunni Muslims 22 ESTIMATE POPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUP Shia Muslims form Iraq’s ethnic majority % Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran) 	*	From 6 to 23 years  Source:		EIU country profile Iraq 2002 1980 1998 EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 

麦肯锡—伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告.ppt