September 2010 
EU recovery progressing within an 
 [suggested new layout using the text of IF Sep 09] 
uncertain global environment 
 The economic recovery in the EU, while still fragile, is progressing at a faster pace than previously envisaged. 
In particular, real GDP growth for both the EU and euro area surprised markedly on the upside in the second 
 quarter of 2010. This strong performance stemmed from an export-driven industrial rebound, in line with the 
 continued   strong   dynamics   of   global   growth   and   trade   in   the   first   half   of   the   year.   Encouragingly,   signs   of 
 a revival in domestic demand, including private consumption, also became evident, particularly in Germany. 
 While a moderation of EU GDP growth in the second half of the year is still foreseen, some momentum from the 
 second quarter should feed-through to the following quarters, lifting the previously expected quarterly profile 
 somewhat.   This   improved   outlook   is   supported,   inter   alia,   by   sentiment   indicators   for   the   EU   pointing   to 
 continuing   expansion   of   activity   in   the   months   ahead,   with   signs   that   the   recovery   is   also   broadening   across 
 sectors. However, the global economy is still expected to go through a soft patch in the second half of the year, 
 implying a dampening effect on EU export growth. In addition, although fi nancial-market conditions have partly 
 recovered from the acute tensions experienced last May, the situation remains tenuous, and adverse effects on 
 bank credit provision to the economy cannot be ruled out. 
Based   on   an   update   for   the   seven   largest   EU   Member   States   focusing   on   growth   and   inflation   this   year,   the 
 economic   outlook   for   the   EU   has   been   revised   up   from   the   Commission's   spring   2010   forecast.   Real   GDP 
growth is now projected at 1.8% in the EU and 1.7% in the euro area in 2010. Upward revisions are reported 
for   all  seven    Member       States   consider ed     in  this   interim    forecast    and   notably    so   for  Germany,      where     the 
 underlying   dynamics   appear   to   have   gained   much   more   strength   than   earlier   anticipated.   Notwithstanding 
 exchange-rate developments and the recent weather-related price increases of some agro-commodities, slack in 
 the economy, subdued wage growth and low inflation expectations are keeping inflation in check. The inflation 
forecasts for 2010 are broadly unchanged, with HICP inflation projected at 1.8% and 1.4% in the EU and euro 
 area respectively. 
Amid   continued   high   uncertainty,   risks   to   the   EU   growth   outlook   remain   elevated,   even   if   they   are   broadly 
 balanced. 
 Graph 1: Softer GDP growth ahead                                              Graph 2: Continued subdued HICP inflation 
                                                                        

2010-09-13欧元区经济预测 英文版.pdf